Statistics: A Perverted Art?

In my own statistical test of other statistical tests, I have concluded there is a 95% probability that any given conclusion is 800% more likely to be complete bullshit.....though there is only a 20% chance of that when it is cloudy outside! Then again, if my test is typical of most then it is bullshit anyway meaning the other tests might very well be valid.

I'm being facetious to illustrate how statistics are so commonly perverted as a means to explain anything or everything. Do you want to presuppose legalizing guns helps or hinders society? Or how about "proving" global warming is predominantly caused by man (or woman)? Perhaps you want to conclude the opposite? Just selectively choose your data and variables and I'm sure you can “prove” either.

I believe one of the dangers inherent in most of these statistical tests is that it unconsciously encourages many to identify with and support only conclusions already believed or at least wanted to be believed. In this way, it inflates their egos by giving them something to feel “right” about.

“This statistical conclusion performed by The Institute of Environmental Fascists (IEF) confirms my suspicion about us being the primary cause of global warming, therefore it must be true”, says the man. “Oh really, this test performed by Fossilized Carbon Collectors' Institute (FCCI) suggests otherwise,” says another man. One can see the inherent bias of these silly examples and though they are a bit exaggerated, I think the point is made. 

People want to believe things in order to feel superior and righteous about their preferred causes. Perhaps their belief in the “truth” also gives them a sense of control they would otherwise be without.

Let's also suggest the potential for a self-fulfilled prophesy to transpire only because it is foretold by a given conclusion. As an example, I can't help but think how many hypochondriacs have been created only as a result of having an allergy test which “dictates” that a given person should react to a certain substance. Might a reaction come about purely or at least partially in response to the belief that it should or would?

With diseases, social problems, mental problems, environmental problems, blah, blah, blah. The issue I have with statistical tests is not the tests themselves, but rather the underlying assumptions and variables used to reach the conclusion(s) which are almost always chosen only to validate something already believed or wanted to be believed, thereby creating meaningless circular arguments.

Circular Reasoning

Pertaining to peoples' definite claims about the nature of reality, it must be pointed out that whatever one is initially inclined to believe is, out of necessity, going to be the only logical conclusion. The reason this is the case is because fundamental presuppositions must be set forth to conclude anything which in turn necessitates the use of circular reasoning. One can only ever conclude the nature of reality based on his underlying assumptions. 

For example, we might ask that if God exists, how is His own existence explained? If one presupposes a hypothetical God is uncaused (presumably a believer of any God must), of course through “logical” reasoning it will be concluded that He almost certainly exists.

On the other hand, if one presupposes a hypothetical God requires a cause like everything else is thought to, he will conclude “logically” that God almost certainly does not exist.

Do people choose presuppositions exclusively because these assumptions support something they already or at least “want” to believe? Almost certainly, which is what makes it so difficult to objectively evaluate the veracity of these kinds of conclusions.

An unbeliever will likely be accused of choosing only those presuppositions which support his inclination to deny the existence of God. But a believer does just the same. Simply choose the presuppositions that will inevitably lead to the conclusion that God almost certainly exists.

What is my aim in this discourse? That there is no compelling reason to believe anything wholeheartedly. As I've alluded to on many counts, I don't have a problem with this. It does not matter to me whether God does or does not exist. I can live a fulfilled life with or without God or at least with or without belief in God. To allay the concerns of those suspicious that my lack of belief will lead me astray, do not worry! I have no compulsion to degenerate into a wretched, vile animal just because I don't believe in God!

I want to be forthright about something. There is nothing wrong with having beliefs. We are ultimately going to believe only what we want to believe. With this in mind, we must brace ourselves with the fact that many people are going to believe contrary to us. We should be humble and respectful and simply agree to disagree.

Might Truth Be Like Quantum States?

I have found more truth asking questions and introspecting than I ever did trying to find “absolute” truth. Trying to find “absolute” truth is an endeavor destined to fail because it inevitably winds up skewing one's objectivity in one way or perhaps many.

Might the search for truth be a bit like Heisenberg's uncertainty principal? Truth, like quantum states, is very elusive. It is not possible to know with certainty both the velocity and location of a given particle because the mere act of measuring one skews the “truth” of the other. One can know completely either of the two or know a little something of both but he can not know both with certainty.

If velocity is like relativity and location is like absolutism, let's attempt to find “absolute” truth. How would one do this? That's easy! The precise measurement of a particle's location/absolutism will produce an “absolute” truth. But only at enormous cost. For he will now forgo any knowledge as to the velocity/relativity of the particle, thereby making it erroneously appear as though its velocity is zero and hence not relative in the least. In this case, it seems clear that whatever truth is found is absolute and unquestionable.

Trouble is, somebody else can just as easily measure the particle's location/absolutism in exactly the same manner but come up with a contradictory assessment regarding the particle's “absolute” location. The explanation for this disagreement is that the particle actually has a velocity and hence its location is seemingly relative to any given measurer and time. In other words, because the person and the time of the measurement is different and the measured item actually has a velocity, it will not be in the same position as it is for any other measurer.

This will cause disagreement between the two as both are presumably unaware that the particle has a velocity and hence is not in an identical location at any given time. Each measurer then erroneously believes he is in possession of the “absolute” truth as to the particle's whereabouts at all times.

It is my contention that ego tends to creep into any “honest” assessment of truth. Reason being, the ego's ultimate aim is not, perhaps surprisingly, to find truth. Rather, its ultimate aim is to find an “absolutely right” answer, however arbitrary, to inflate its sense of superiority by being absolutely right.

The issue with finding truth always revolves around fundamental assumptions. Why choose one over another? It can only be arbitrary to individual preferences. If one wants to believe the world is ultimately good, he might assume a good God exists Who out of necessity must be uncaused, this itself another blind assumption. On the other hand, one could just as easily believe the world is ultimately not good and assume there is no God or at least no good God. Of course neither view is provable nor disprovable! They are nothing but assumptions!

Another might just as easily see the world as being equally good and bad (of course this being merely relative to somebody's chosen perspective) and conclude the world is neither good nor bad.....it just is. Would this world be atheistic or would it be “ruled” by an indifferent God? Either could be assumed.

Alternatively, one could just as easily measure completely velocity/relativism and conclude that there is/are no truth(s). Might the true search for truth be inspecting ourselves? What outcome might this have on the world? What if everybody were to partake of this endeavor? Could this be the beginning of the end for the ego? What might happen concerning violence and war or perhaps between their far less dramatic yet insidious siblings, argument and conflict over seemingly petty things?