Thursday, November 5, 2009

The Inverse Proportionality Of Convictions And Their Likelihood Of Being True

It seems the more uncertain a belief, the stronger conviction it requires to be at all believable. This is likely due to the fact that the only way to overcome the discomfort of something's uncertainty is to convictingly declare it so hence rendering it essentially CERTAIN. "Reasoning" in this manner seems to elevate an unknown to a known, a contradiction at heart. For it is implying that something not certain IS certain.

What might motivate us to be so strongly convicted of the most uncertain things? To provide us with the illusion that we are in control of TRUTH. This is simply ego.

As much certainty as we have about gravity (not necessarily what it is but at least its effects on things we are familiar with), why do so few show their conviction of gravity and so many show their conviction of hypothetical God's or supreme beings of which there is scant evidence? It seems a conviction's very essence is that it BE unknown.*

However, the chance that any unknown is correctly "guessed" is remote because there are so many potential explanations for UNKNOWN things**. Arguing over an unknown is simply the ego "guessing" its way to the truth! And generally speaking, the greater the unknown, the more "guesses" it will beg for leaving any particular guess increasingly less likely to account for it. Which conviction/guess is correct?

*Few seem overly convicted of gravity and its predictable effects simply because it is well known (once again, not what it IS but its predictable EFFECTS). In contrast, the same way hell is reputed to be the most supremely awful place simply because of its uncertainty and thus unlikelihood, so too must an unknown be intensely believed so as to overcome its uncertainty and thus unlikelihood**.

**It is important not to extrapolate this argument on uncertain things known to be highly constrained. For example, I may be most uncertain as to whether a fair coin will come up heads or tails, but I can be most certain it will come up one or the other. This makes perfectly clear that uncertainty does not necessarily imply unlikelihood of a particular solution, rather, a particular solution should be treated as unlikely if the correct solution is not known to be highly constrained and potential solutions appear more or less equally untenable. Since there does not seem to be a valid reason to believe our existence should be based on only a very limited number of potential solutions, we should therefore be compelled to believe there could be innumerable solutions thereby making any particular "guess" as to our existence very unlikely to be true.

Convictions overturn uncertainties only by convictingly declaring them certain!

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